Pacific Northwest Probability Seminar

The Twenty Sixth Northwest Probability Seminar
November 14, 2026
Supported by the Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences (PIMS), University of Washington (Friends of Mathematics Fund), and Milliman Fund.
 
 
The Birnbaum Lecture in Probability will be delivered by Sourav Chatterjee (Stanford University) in 2026.

Northwest Probability Seminars are mini-conferences held at the University of Washington and organized in collaboration with the Oregon State University, the University of British Columbia and the University of Oregon. There is no registration fee.

The Scientific Committee for the NW Probability Seminar 2026 consists of Zhen-Qing Chen (U Washington), Jonathan Hermon (U British Columbia), Chris Hoffman (U Washington), David Levin (U Oregon) and Axel Saenz Rodríguez (Oregon State U).

HOTEL INFORMATION

Hotels near the University of Washington.

The talks will take place in Mary Gates Hall 231 (see the map).

Parking on UW campus is free on Saturdays only after noon. See parking information.

Schedule

• 10:00 - 11:00 Coffee Mary Gates Commons
• 11:00 - 11:50 Sourav Chatterjee, Stanford University
  "Birnbaum Lecture": Timelike Liouville field theory: rigorous results and open problems
  Liouville field theory, known as Liouville quantum gravity (LQG) in probability theory, has attracted widespread attention in the probability and mathematical physics communities in recent years. In physics, it is sometimes referred to as “spacelike” Liouvillle theory, to distinguish it from its “timelike” counterpart. Timelike Liouville field theory is a far less understood theory, both in physics and in mathematics. The importance of the timelike theory stems from the fact that it is supposed to have a positive curvature semiclassical limit, unlike the spacelike theory, which has a negative curvature semiclassical limit. Einstein’s general relativity gives rise to positive curvature metrics, which motivates the search for more “realistic” theories of quantum gravity that yield positive curvature in the semiclassical limit. The problem with such theories is that they invariably run into the problem of working with random fields with negative variance, which do not belong to the framework of ordinary probability theory. After introducing a detailed background, I will talk about some of my recent work on timelike Liouville theory, which proves some of the conjectured results and develops some rigorous mathematical understanding of the nature of this theory. This includes the development of a theory of Gaussian random variables with negative variance, the proof of the “timelike DOZZ formula” in the charge neutral regime, and recent advances beyond charge neutrality. Since much of the theory still remains poorly understood, I will spend time on open problems and conjectures.
  
  
• 12:00 - 12:50 Jinwoo Sung, University of Washington
  A Cameron–Martin criterion for Gaussian multiplicative chaos on the circle
  Gaussian multiplicative chaos (GMC) is a random measure obtained by taking a renormalized exponential of a log-correlated Gaussian field. We consider the pushforward of one-dimensional GMC on the circle under a deterministic circle homeomorphism $\phi$, and ask when its law is mutually absolutely continuous with the original law.
  Using the Feldman–Hájek criterion, we first identify that the law of the underlying log-correlated Gaussian field under composition with $\phi$ is mutually absolutely continuous with the original law precisely when φ is a Weil–Petersson homeomorphism. Equivalently, $\log |\phi'|$ belongs to $H^{1/2}(S^1)$. Furthermore, we show that the same if-and-only-if criterion for quasi-invariance is preserved under the nonlinear transformation from the field to its GMC measure. This gives a characterization of the Weil–Petersson class directly in terms of the law of GMC.
  This is joint work with Shuo Fan
  
  
• 1:00 - 3:00 Lunch, catered, Mary Gates Commons
• 3:00 - 3:50 Hyojeong Son, University of British Columbia
  Stable Matchings with Correlated Preferences
  We study stable matchings between $n$ men and $n$ women. Each individual strictly ranks $n$ members of the other group. Each individual's preferences are independently drawn from the Mallows distribution with parameter $q\in (0,1)$. The rankings favor a shared reference order for each group. For every fixed $q$, we show that the logarithm of the number of stable matchings divided by $n$ converges in probability to a finite positive growth rate. And this growth rate is continuous in $q$ and tends to zero as q approaches zero. Furthermore, we show that after centering the logarithm of the number of stable matchings by $n$ times the growth rate and dividing by $\sqrt n$, the limiting distribution is normal with finite positive variance.
  
  
• 4:00 - 4:50 Nikolaus Elsasser, Oregon State University
  Exact transition probabilities for the $XXZ$ spin-1/2 chain on the ring
  The KPZ universality class comprises a family of models conjectured to exhibit the same asymptotic fluctuations arising in random interface growth. While determinantal models such as TASEP admit exact formulas well-suited to asymptotic analysis, exact-formula methods have yielded fluctuation results for non-determinantal models such as ASEP only in rare cases. Notably, Tracy and Widom rigorously established one-point KPZ statistics for ASEP on the infinite line, showing convergence of fluctuations to the GUE Tracy-Widom distribution. A key ingredient was exact formulas for transition probabilities, derived via the Bethe ansatz and a Plancherel-type transformation (later generalized by Borodin, Corwin, Petrov and Sasamoto). An analogous program for models on the ring (periodic geometry) has yet to be carried out, a primary obstacle being the absence of explicit transition probabilities. In this talk I will introduce exact formulas for the wavefunction and transition probabilities of the $XXZ$ spin-1/2 chain on the ring - a similarity transform of ASEP - derived via an inversion formula for the coordinate Bethe ansatz eigenfunctions. These formulas constitute the first step toward executing a Tracy-Widom type program for periodic KPZ models. Joint work with Axel Saenz and Eric Corwin
• 5:30 No-host dinner.
  • Venue TBA. There is no funding to subsidize the dinner. Please bring cash.