Pacific Northwest Probability Seminar

The Twenty Fifth Northwest Probability Seminar
October 18, 2025
Supported by the University of Oregon, Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences (PIMS), Baidu, University of Washington (Friends of Mathematics Fund), and Milliman Fund.

 
 
The Birnbaum Lecture in Probability will be delivered by Richard Kenyon (Yale University) in 2025.

Northwest Probability Seminars are mini-conferences held at the University of Washington and organized in collaboration with the Oregon State University, the University of British Columbia and the University of Oregon. There is no registration fee.

The Scientific Committee for the NW Probability Seminar 2025 consists of Omer Angel (U British Columbia), Chris Burdzy (U Washington), Jonathan Hermon (U British Columbia), Chris Hoffman (U Washington), David Levin (U Oregon) and Axel Saenz Rodríguez (Oregon State U).

HOTEL INFORMATION

Hotels near the University of Washington.

The talks will take place in Mary Gates Hall 241 (see the map).

Parking on UW campus is free on Saturdays only after noon. See parking information.

Schedule

  • 10:00 - 11:00 Coffee Mary Gates Commons
  • 11:00 - 11:50 Elizabeth Collins-Woodfin, University of Oregon
      Multi-Species Spin Glass Models at Critical Temperature
      One of the fascinating phenomena in spin glasses is the dramatic change in behavior between the high- and low-temperature regimes. In this talk, I will focus on spin glasses near the critical temperature threshold and present results on the fluctuations of the free energy, using tools from random matrix theory. I will discuss two variants of the famous Sherrington-Kirkpatrick (SK) model. For the bipartite spherical SK (BSSK) model, we show that the free energy fluctuations at critical temperature converge to a sum of Gaussian and Tracy-Widom distributions, interpolating between known results in the high- and low-temperature regimes. For the multi-species SK (MSK) model (with a positive semi-definite interaction), we provide a sharper variance bound than previously known. The techniques used to study these two models differ significantly, as BSSK has continuous spins, while MSK has discrete spins. I will highlight the key strategies for analyzing each model and discuss connections to random matrices and statistical applications.
      Joint work with Han Le.

  • 12:00 - 12:50 Peter Kosenko, University of British Columbia
      Exact dimensionality of harmonic measures for random walks on lamplighter groups
      In my talk I will present methods which allow us to show continuity of the asymptotic entropy (due to E. Silva) and the asymptotic drift for non-degenerate finitely supported random walks on lamplighter groups, highlighting several tricky obstacles which stand in our way. I will also present a strategy which can be used to establish the exact-dimensionality of the harmonic measure for non-degenerate finitely supported random walks on $\mathbb{Z} \wr \mathbb{Z}_2$ and can be adapted to generalize the results to random walks on lamplighters on trees.
      Joint work (in progress) with Eduardo Silva.

  • 1:00 - 3:00 Lunch, catered, Mary Gates Commons
  • 3:00 - 3:50 Richard Kenyon, Yale University
      "Birnbaum Lecture": The multinomial dimer model
      Very few statistical mechanics models have "exact" solutions, and essentially none in dimensions 3 or more. One exception is the multinomial random tiling model, a version of random tiling which can be "solved" on any finite graph.

      We study the particular case of the multinomial dimer model, on large subgraphs of ${\mathbb Z}^d$, proving a large deviation principle with rate function given by the integral of an explicit "surface tension." We can furthermore compute exact limit shapes in some two- and three-dimensional settings, such as the Aztec diamond and "Aztec cuboid."
      This is joint work with Catherine Wolfram.

  • 4:00 - 4:30 Coffee Mary Gates Commons
  • 4:30 - 5:20 Dan Mikulincer, University of Washington
      Ising model and localization techniques
      The Ising model describes systems of binary variables with local interactions and is central to statistical mechanics and probability. This talk will explore recent applications of localization techniques to its analysis. The focus will be on how such methods can be used to study the model in various settings, including regular graphs, the Hopfield model, and extensions involving higher-order interactions.
  • 6:00 No-host dinner.
    • Restaurant: Cedars and its menu. It is possible (but not guaranteed) that the conference will have funds to partly subsidize dinner. Please bring cash. Address: 4759 Brooklyn Ave NE, Seattle, WA 98105. See Google map. The map shows a 22 minute route from Mary Gates Hall to the restaurant.