Math 521 - Probability I

Instructor: Christopher Hoffman, Padelford C-419, hoffman at math dot washington dot edu
Lectures: Mon,Wed,Fri 11:30-12:20, JHN 022
Office Hours: Mon 10-11:20 and by appointment
Final Exam: Wed Dec 10, 2:30-4:20, JHN 022
Grading: Homework (50%), Final Exam (40%), Presentations (10%)
Prerequisite: Math 426 or 524 (Measure Theory) is recommended

Outline

This is an introduction to mathematically rigorous probability for graduate students. General mathematical maturity will be assumed. Prior exposure to undergraduate-level probability is not required, although it is helpful. We will introduce topics from measure theory as they are necessary. The course will cover selected topics from the first 5 chapters of Durrett's text:

1. Review of Measure Theory

2. Borel-Cantelli lemmas

3. Laws of Large numbers and concentration for sums of independent bounded random variables

4. Modes of convergence

5. Simple random walk and Gamblers Ruin

6. Kolmogorov and Hewitt-Savage zero-one laws

7. Product measure and Fubini's theorem

8. Exponential random variables and Poisson processes

9. Gaussian random variables and Lindeberg's proof of the central limit theorem

10. Markov chains: stationary distributions, recurrence and transience

11. Kolmogorov extension theorem

12. Martingales and conditional expectation

Math 522 is the continuation of this course, and will cover topics from Chapters 4,5,6,7 of Durrett's text.

Books

Course textbook: R. Durrett: Probability: Theory and Examples, 3rd ed. Duxbury Press.

Measure theory background: G. B. Folland: Real Analysis: Modern Techniques and Their Applications. Wiley.

Advanced undergraduate probability: G. R. Grimmett and D. R. Stirzaker: Probability and Random Processes, Oxford.

Very advanced and concise reference: O. Kallenberg. Foundations of Modern Probability.

Other relevant books:
D. Williams. Probability with Martingales
L. Breiman. Probability. SIAM.
P. Billingsley. Probability and Measure.
K.L. Chung. A course in probability theory.
D.W. Stroock. Probability Theory: an analytic view.
A. Gut. Probability: A Graduate Course. Springer.
G.R. Grimmett. Percolation. Springer.

Homework

Homework 1. Due Wednesday October 8

Durret Chapter 1 3.16, 4.16, 5.2, 5.4, 6.11 Due Wednesday October 15

Homework will be collected at the beginning of class.

Lecture Notes

Week 1 Notes.

Week 2 Notes.

Week 3 Notes.